Japan’s tourism sector faced a significant downturn in July 2025, with both international and domestic travel demand weakening. Preliminary data from Japan’s tourism ministry revealed a 2.5% drop in international overnight stays and a 1.4% decline in domestic hotel bookings—marking the second consecutive month of decline.
Retail sales also reflected the slump. The Japan Department Store Association reported a 7.8% year-on-year drop in June sales, with duty-free purchases by foreign tourists plummeting 40.6%. By July, duty-free sales had fallen 36.3% for the fifth straight month. Visitors from Hong Kong and South Korea saw particularly sharp declines.
Economic analysts attribute the downturn to reduced travel frequency and cautious domestic spending. Non-essential expenses, including travel, were sharply cut as consumers prioritized necessities.
A key factor behind the slump was a viral rumor predicting a catastrophic earthquake on July 5, 2025. Widely shared on social media and amplified by news reports, the rumor gained credibility due to a manga author’s eerily accurate 2011 earthquake prediction. A survey of 5,000 respondents showed 93% were aware of the rumor, with 1.5% canceling and 9.5% delaying travel plans. Half reported being advised against visiting Japan by friends or family.
The rumor’s impact was severe. Bloomberg noted a 50% average drop in bookings from some Asian regions, with some flights operating at just 40% capacity. Despite official debunking efforts, the rumor persisted, fueled by over 1 billion views of related social media videos.
In response, some regions launched innovative programs to revive tourism. Kagawa Prefecture’s Shodoshima Island offered work-exchange programs, while others promoted agricultural experiences to foster emotional connections with visitors.
Experts emphasized that while Japan is seismically active, earthquake prediction remains scientifically impossible. The tourism slump underscores the power of misinformation in a hyperconnected world.
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